Imakethe ye-bauxite ibilokhu iphansi kusukela yaba buthaka engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka odlule. Ngemuva kukaDisemba, iqhwa ezindaweni ezisenyakatho landise imikhawulo emisebenzini yezimayini. Kanye nokulawulwa okuqinile kwemvelo ngesikhathi sokushisa, ukutholakala kwe-ore yasekhaya ngokuvamile bekunciphile ngoDisemba. Ukumbiwa kanye nomthamo wokugcina ezifundazweni zaseShanxi naseHenan kubuthakathaka kakhulu, futhi ukukhiqizwa kwe-ore kulindeleke ukuthi kuhlale kulinganiselwe ngenyanga elandela uSuku Lonyaka Omusha.
Nakuba ukutholakala kwe-ore ezifundazweni zaseGuangxi naseGuizhou kungcono kancane kunasenyakatho, akwanele ukuhlangabezana ngokugcwele nezidingo zokukhiqiza zezinkampani ze-alumina ezingezansi komfula. Okuphawulekayo ukuthi, ezinyeizinkampani ze-aluminaeGuizhou sebeqalile ukusebenzisa i-ore engenisiwe kusukela ngonyaka odlule ukuze banciphise ingcindezi yezinto zokusetshenziswa.
Njengamanje, ukutholakala kwe-ore yasekhaya kusalokhu kuphansi, okuholela ekucindezelweni okukhulu kwezindleko ezinkampanini ze-alumina, okwenza ezinye izinkampani zilungise amanani okuthengwa kwe-ore kusukela ngoJanuwari. Kusukela ngo-2026, amanani e-ore yasekhaya abonise ukwehla, kodwa ukwehla kube kancane kancane. Intuthuko eyengeziwe izoncika ekushintsheni kwenqubomgomo ngemuva koMkhosi WaseNtwasahlobo nokuthi izimayini ezimisiwe zizoqala kabusha yini ukukhiqizwa. Izitayela zentengo ye-ore zizohlala zihlobene eduze nezimo zemakethe ezingezansi.
Ngokuphathelene ne-ore engenisiwe, izinkampani zezimayini ezazimiswe ngaphambilini eGuinea ziye zaqala ukusebenza kancane kancane, futhi ukukhiqizwa kwazo kanye nomthamo wokuthumela impahla kuzinzile, kanti kulindeleke ukuthi kutholakale ukwanda kokunikezwayo esikhathini esizayo. Umthamo wokunikezwayo eTurkey naseSierra Leone nawo uyanda. Uma sibheka emuva ngonyaka odlule, iShayina yayinokunikezwa ngokweqile kwamathani angaba yizigidi ezingama-20 e-ore engenisiwe. Njengamanje, amanani e-ore aseGuinea ehlile, ehla ngaphansi kwama-$70/ton ngemuva koSuku Lonyaka Omusha. I-Australia isizongena enkathini yayo yemvula, okungase kuthinte ukukhiqizwa kwayo kwezimayini; ukwanda kokunikezwayo okuvela eGuinea kungakhokhela noma yikuphi ukwehla okungenzeka okuvela e-Australia.
Sekukonke, ngaphandle kwezimo ezingalindelekile ngaphambi koMkhosi waseNtwasahlobo, amanani e-bauxite kulindeleke ukuthi ahlale ebuthakathaka kodwa ezinzile. Intuthuko eyengeziwe izoncika ekushintsheni kokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo kanye nezinguquko emananini emakethe aphansi.
Ii-aluminaMuva nje imakethe ikhombisa izici "zesikhathi esizayo eziqhuba amanani aqondile, kanye nemikhuba ehlukene phakathi kwezimakethe zesikhathi esizayo kanye nezimakethe ze-spot." Nakuba ukunyuka kwamanani esikhathi esizayo kwandise imizwa yabanikazi, izisekelo zemakethe ye-spot zahlala zibuthakathaka: ukuhlinzekwa kwemakethe kwahlala kuningi, kanti izinkampani ze-aluminium ze-electrolytic, ezinempahla eyanele evela ekugcinweni kwangaphambilini, zabonisa izinhloso zokuthenga ezibuthakathaka. Lokhu kwaholela ekumisweni lapho "abathengisi bephakamisa amanani ngokungazelelwe, kodwa abathengi babenqikaza ukwamukela," okwaholela ekubeni noketshezi oluphansi kanye nokucindezela okuphansi kwamanani.
Ngokombono wokunikezwa kanye nesidingo, isimo samanje sokusalela asikashintshi. Naphezu kwezinguquko ezivamile zokukhiqiza ngoDisemba ngonyaka odlule, umthelela ekukhiqizweni okuphelele kwanyanga zonke wawunqunyelwe futhi wehluleka ukuguqula isimo sokunikezwa okuxekethile. Imakethe ngokuvamile isemdonsiswaneni phakathi "kwezici ezinhle zezomnotho kanye namaqiniso ayisisekelo angemahle," engenawo amandla okushayela ukunyakaza kwentengo, ngaleyo ndlela igcina umkhuba oguquguqukayo kodwa ozinzile.
Uma sibheka phambili, kusenezinhlelo zokwengeza amandla amasha eShayina ngo-2026, kanti amandla athile kulindeleke ukuthi atholakale ku-inthanethi kwikota yokuqala neyesibili, okwandisa kakhulu ingcindezi yokunikezwa kwamandla, futhi okungenzeka kuholele ekwehleni kwengcindezi yamanani. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amandla amasha akhishwe phesheya kwezilwandle muva nje, futhi imakethe yomhlaba wonke ye-alumina ikhombisa ukutholakala okuningi kakhulu kunesidingo. Ukungeniswa kwe-alumina kwakamuva kube kukhulu, kubeka ingcindezi emananini asekhaya, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi amanani okungeniswa aqhubeke ephezulu ngoJanuwari.
Ngasohlangothini lwesidingo, yize amandla amasha ekhishwe emakethe ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic, ukwanda akwanele ukumunca ingcindezi yamanje yokuphakelwa kwe-alumina, okwenza kube nzima ukunikeza ukwesekwa okuqinile kwamanani.
Ngo-2025, i-i-silicon carbide Imakethe kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubekele phambili kancane kancane ngokuthuthukiswa kwemboni yokukhiqiza, kodwa imboni ikhombisa umehluko omkhulu wesakhiwo. Njengento esetshenziswa njengendwangu yokuhudula yendabuko, ukusebenza kwayo emakethe kuhlobene kakhulu nesidingo esingezansi. Imakethe ye-black silicon carbide ingaphansi kwengcindezi enkulu, idonswa phansi yimakethe yezindlu evilaphayo kanye nesidingo esibuthakathaka esivela ezimbonini ezifana nezinsimbi ezingasebenzi kahle kanye nensimbi. Izinkampani zibhekene nobunzima bokusebenza, ngokumiswa okubanzi kokukhiqiza kanye nokunciphisa, okuholela emazingeni aphansi okusebenza kwemboni. Ukukhiqiza konyaka kulindeleke ukuthi kube cishe ngamathani angu-400,000-500,000.
Imakethe ye-green silicon carbide isebenza kahle. Isetshenziswa kakhulu ezintweni zokubhula kanye nezobumba zobunjiniyela, kanti umthamo wayo uhlala ulingana namathani ayi-100,000. Ukunikezwa, isidingo, kanye namanani kuye kwahlala kuzinzile eminyakeni eyisikhombisa noma eyisishiyagalombili edlule, kwaba ukwesekwa okubalulekile embonini. Ngokombono wezindleko, intengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa ze-green silicon carbide ishintshe kancane ngama-yuan angu-50-100/ton. Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yemiphumela ehlanganisiwe yesidingo esihlukile kanye nezici zezindleko, izinga lenzuzo iyonke yemboni lihlala liphansi. Ngokuphathelene nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe: Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwei-silicon carbidenjengezinto ezivamile ezihudulayo zehle kakhulu cishe ngo-40% ngenxa yomthelela wemakethe yamazwe ngamazwe, kuyilapho ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo ye-silicon carbide yezinhlelo zokusebenza eziphezulu njenge-photovoltaics kanye ne-semiconductors kusebenze kahle kakhulu.
Inkinga enkulu ebhekene nale mboni njengamanje ukuntuleka kwamakhono okukhiqiza aphezulu. Amandla okukhiqiza asekhaya kanye nobuchwepheshe ku-silicon carbide ye-elekthronikhi kusenamaphutha amakhulu. Uma sibheka phambili ku-2026, imboni idinga ukufuna ngenkuthalo ukuguqulwa, ikhuthaze ukuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe ngokubambisana okuqinile namanyuvesi nezikhungo zocwaningo, futhi igxile ekuthuthukiseni imikhiqizo ehlukenisiwe enembile, ekhethekile, kanye nenenani eliphezulu ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukuncintisana kanye nenzuzo. Izinhlangano zezimboni zingaphinde ziqondise izinkampani ukuthi zilungise amasu azo ngokuhlola kanye nezingxoxo, zikhuthaze ngokubambisana ukwenziwa ngcono kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwesakhiwo sezimboni.